Despite repeated reports of record-breaking trade deals, Iran’s commercial reality remains constrained. Analysts and business representatives note that while headlines suggest growth, actual trade volumes are modest, and trade relations are largely limited to a few neighboring countries and China.
Fatemeh Javadi, an economic researcher, observes that Iran’s attempts at showcasing achievements often mask structural weaknesses: “While reports suggest significant leaps in bilateral trade, actual trade volumes remain modest.”
Sanctions are widely seen as the central barrier limiting Iran’s access to diversified trading partners and international banking channels. Mehrad Abad, a member of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, explains that the country’s trading network has shrunk drastically over the past decade. European partners briefly expanded trade during the JCPOA period, but most withdrew after the US exit, while Persian Gulf countries now often engage through intermediaries.
According to Abad, “Even in countries like Iraq and Afghanistan, companies connected to Europe or the US are generally unwilling to cooperate with Iran.”
This isolation has further consequences for technology imports and industrial productivity. Machinery previously sourced from Germany ensured high-quality production, but reliance on lower-quality Chinese equipment has increased.
Abad highlights that Iran’s export markets, once including North America and Europe for products like pistachios, saffron, and carpets, have largely disappeared, reducing the benefits of comparative advantages.
Sadr al-Din Niavarani, also from the Iran Chamber of Commerce, criticizes current trade agreements as largely symbolic. “In our deals with China, tariff reductions often apply to non-export products. Agreements with Eurasian nations grant concessions on goods that are not key exports for Iran, while we provide significant benefits,” he explains, noting that most memoranda are ceremonial rather than practical.
Business leaders stress the need for stronger international engagement and domestic reforms. Expanding trade requires lifting sanctions, improving global connectivity, and strengthening the private sector, which currently controls only a small fraction of Iran’s economy.
Abad argues that long-term stability and strategic planning are essential: “Even if we start reforms today, it will take two to three years to see results, because sanctions relief is a multi-year process.”
Iran’s trade challenges reflect both external pressures and internal inefficiencies. Without targeted policy, access to technology, and engagement with high-value markets, the country’s commercial potential remains largely untapped.
